What are the causes of the housing affordability crisis, and what can we do about it? I tackle these questions in my first post for Human Progress.
The End of the Housing Affordability Crisis
humanprogress.org
@JeremyHorp
I'm an economist at the University of Central Arkansas
economistwritingeveryday.com/Focused reader — 1 sources in 90 days
Also a writer — 1 original piece this quarter
What are the causes of the housing affordability crisis, and what can we do about it? I tackle these questions in my first post for Human Progress.
The End of the Housing Affordability Crisis
humanprogress.org
Your Fridge Is Bigger and Cheaper Today, Thanks to Global Trade and Innovation
cato.org
While the official poverty line for a family of four isn't perfect, it probably shouldn't be adjusted up to $140,000
The Poverty Line is Not $140,000
A recent essay by Michael W. Green makes a very bold claim that the poverty line should not be where it is currently set -- about $31,200 for a family of four -- but should be much higher. He suggests somewhere around $140,000. The essay was originally posted on his Substack, but has now gone…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Speaking of unlikely coalitions in Arkansas, here is a summary of one of my papers from a few years ago
University of Central Arkansas | UCA
Academic excellence, a vibrant campus, D1 athletics and an energetic college town, all help prepare our students for success here and everywhere else.
uca.edu
Are tariffs really bringing in record revenue? Yes, but it's less than you would think from the headlines.
cato.org
Even MSAs that were heavily exposed to the "China Shock" have performed well economically since 2000
China Shocked? Hard Hit Metropolitan Statistical Areas Have Performed Well Economically Since 2000
Yet even these worst cases show that the US economy is more than able to adapt to employment changes brought on by international trade, even as we enjoy all of its other benefits.
cato.org
My latest blog post for Cato is co-authored with Phil Magness, and looks at Trump's latest tariff proposal. It's not good!
Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Reciprocal and Are a Massive Tax Increase on Americans
There isn’t any good economic theory to support Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan. The formula appears to be merely a justification to put tariffs on all countries, but higher ones on countries that we import a lot from.
cato.org
Why did egg prices increase so quickly, and why are they falling so quickly again (at least at the wholesale level for now)? I try to explain in my latest Cato post
Egg Prices Don’t Need to Be Investigated—It’s Just Supply and Demand
Egg prices have skyrocketed, but before jumping to conclusions about market manipulation, the reality is simple: It’s supply and demand, with avian flu decimating the egg-laying chicken population and inelastic consumer demand driving prices even higher.
cato.org
Why has almost all net job creation in the past 5 years gone to foreigners in the US? The simple answer: demographics. My lastest Cato blog post
Native-Born Americans Are Not Losing Jobs to Foreigners
Despite fears about foreign-born workers “taking” all net new jobs, the data show that native-born Americans aren’t being pushed out of the labor market—rather, demographic stagnation is the real challenge.
cato.org
My first blog post as an adjunct scholar at Cato
Not Everything You Dislike Is a "Negative Externality"
Not everything that annoys us or seems inefficient is a negative externality, yet policymakers often misuse this concept to justify costly and misguided interventions.
cato.org
Thanksgiving dinner today at the Plaza Hotel is more affordable today than in 1899, despite those appealing looking prices on the menu
Don’t Let Nominal Prices Fool You (Thanksgiving Edition)
When you see prices from the past, especially the distant past, your normal reaction is perhaps one of envy or nostalgia. Take for example the Thanksgiving menu from the Plaza Hotel in New York in 1899. As you browse the menu, note that the prices are in cents, not dollars. The most expensive items on…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Prediction markets called the election last night hours before other sources
Big Win for Prediction Markets
Last night was a big win for Trump, but it was also a big win for prediction markets. In January 2024, I suggested that one of the best ways to follow the election was by following prediction markets. That prediction turned out to be correct! Before any polls had closed, prediction markets had Trump with…
economistwritingeveryday.com
It's true that about 7 million working-age men have dropped out of the labor force. But the reason isn't competition with immigrants for jobs. It's mostly illness and disability.
Where Are The 7 Million Missing Men?
You may have heard that there are roughly 7 million men of working age that are not currently in the labor force -- that is, not currently working or looking for work. The statistic has been produced in various ways using slightly different definitions by different researchers, but the most well-known is from Nicholas Eberstadt…
economistwritingeveryday.com
What's going on with inflation at fast food restaurants? My latest for City Journal.
Inflation Hits the Drive-Through
Rising fast-food prices are eroding American household budgets.
city-journal.org
Young people today are doing a good job accumulating wealth.
Young People Have a Lot More Wealth Than We Thought
I've written numerous times about generational wealth on this blog. My biggest post was one comparing different generations using the Fed's Distributional Financial Accounts back in September 2021. I've posted several updates to that post as new the quarterly data was released, but this post contains a major update. I'll explain in great detail below…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Was 2023 the best year ever for the US labor market? Possibly!
2023: Great Labor Market, or Greatest Labor Market?
As 2023 winds to a close, you'll find lots of "year-end" lists. What would a year-end list for the US labor market look like? Last week I put together some data on the state of the US economy and compared it to 4 years ago. On many measures, sometimes to the first decimal place, the…
economistwritingeveryday.com
This Thanksgiving let's be thankful that, despite recent price increases, food today is much, much cheaper than in the past, and a much smaller share of a household's budget
Let’s Be Thankful for Food Abundance
Despite recent increases in prices of food, we should still all be very thankful this Thanksgiving for the abundance of affordable food available in the modern world. Looking back at my past few bl…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How wealthy are Americans? For both the median and average family, wealth in 2022 was higher than it had ever been (yes, it's adjusted for inflation)
The Average American Is a Millionaire
The Fed’s triennial survey shows that households are building wealth.
city-journal.org
Are Americans thriving today? I look at the latest data in this essay
Americans Are Still Thriving - Econlib
Improving standards of living are something that we have mostly taken for granted in modern America. In fact, failing to produce sufficient increases in national income is one of the surest ways for a President to lose reelection (even if they have little control over it in the short run). But how much are living […]
econlib.org
The Census Bureau released a ton of new data this week in their annual update on income, poverty, and health insurance. The headline number was bad: median income was down again. But there is some good news, especially for Black families.
Median Income Is Down Again. Are There Any Silver Linings in the Data?
This week the Census Bureau released their annual update on "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States." This release is always exciting for researchers, because it involves as massive release of data based on a fairly large (75,000 household) sample with detailed questions about income and related matters. For non-specialists, it also…
economistwritingeveryday.com
I make no claim of causation, but women's earnings have increased a lot since the introduction of Barbie in 1959
Barbie Dolls and Women’s Wages
I was reading "The Ultimate Guide to Barbie" the other day, and I noticed an interesting piece of data towards the end of the magazine: the original Barbie doll in 1959 retailed for $3. Today, according to the magazine, a Barbie costs around $14-19. And they further told us that adjusted for inflation, that $3…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Was the US in a recession in 2022? Probably not. GDP/GDI did decline in three of the four quarters, which is definitely a weak period for growth. But most other economic indicators were improving.
Answer: No, We Were Not in a Recession
About one year ago, I wrote a post with the title "Are We in A Recession?" At the time there was much talk, both in the popular media and among economists, about whether we were in a recession or not, and what "technically" counts as a recession. Now with hindsight, I think we can pretty…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Inflation adjusted wages are up in the past 12 months. Just barely. But finally.
Workers Finally Get a Real Annual Raise
Back in December I pointed out that, thanks to slowing inflation, real wages had been rising since June 2022 (using either the CPI or the PCEPI for inflation adjustments). With the latest monthly d…
economistwritingeveryday.com
There's a strong negative correlation between COVID vaccination rates and excess mortality in Europe
Excess Mortality and Vaccination Rates in Europe
Much ink has been spilled making cross-country comparisons since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have made a few of these, such as a comparison of GDP declines and COVID death rates among abo…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Denmark: a strong candidate for best performance during the pandemic
Economic Recovery from the Pandemic
How well have countries recovered from the declines in the pandemic? It’s actually a bit difficult to answer that question, because it depends on how you measure it. Even if we agree that GDP…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How many jobs did the US economy add in the 2nd quarter of last year? 1 million? 3 million? Or did it lose 287,000? All of these numbers could be correct.
Counting Jobs
Last week I wrote about the challenges of counting deaths. But surely in economics, we can count better, especially when it comes to something concrete like the number of people working. Right? May…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Have we been "overcounting" COVID deaths in the US? I dig into the data.
On Counting and Overcounting Deaths
How many people died in the US from heart diseases in 2019? The answer is harder than it might seem to pin down. Using a broad definition, such as “major cardiovascular diseases,” and i…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Have airfare prices "soared" since 1980? No. Compared to wages, they've been cut in half (though most of the decline happened by 2000)
Air Travel Prices Have Not “Soared” Since 1980 — They’ve Been Cut in Half
Winter holiday travel is notoriously frustrating. This year was especially bad if you were flying on Southwest. But that frustration about delayed and cancelled flights seems to have caused a big i…
economistwritingeveryday.com
2022 was a tough year for investors. Every broad class of investment was down when compared with inflation, some of them dramatically. But there was one investment that beat inflation slightly, with essentially zero risk: Series I Savings Bonds.
Tough Year for Investing (with one little-known, totally safe exception)
There’s still a few more days left in the year, but at this point it is safe to say, unfortunately, that it was a very bad year for investing. This Google chart shows most of the bad news. No…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Good news! Inflation-adjusted wages have been rising since June 2022.
Inflation-Adjusted Wages Have Been Rising Since June 2022
Back in May 2022, I wrote about the very bad picture for inflation-adjusted wages in the US. While they were still slightly above pre-pandemic levels, wages had been falling consistently since the …
economistwritingeveryday.com
The "Fight for $15" hasn't yet achieved its ultimate goal of a $15 federal minimum wage. But there are already some that are pushing way beyond this. $25? $40? Numbers like this used to be used as a reductio ad absurdum for demonstrating the folly of raising the minimum wage. No more!
Fight for $15? $25? $40?
Remember the “Fight for $15”? It’s a 10-year-old movement to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour. While there hasn’t been any increase in the federal minimum wage…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Deaths for young men in the US are up 40% over the pre-pandemic level. What is causing this? It's not heart disease and COVID vaccines. Instead, most of the increase can be accounted for by drug ODs, COVID-19, homicides, car accidents, and suicides
What’s Killing Men Ages 18-39?
The all-cause mortality rate in 2021 for men in the US ages 18-39 was about 40% higher than the average of 2018 and 2019. That’s a huge increase, especially for a group that is not in the hig…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Instead of reading pundits talking about the Pennsylvania Senate debate, just watch prediction markets.
The Only Analysis of the Pennsylvania Senate Debate That You Need To Read
Last night the major party candidates for Senate in Pennsylvania had their first and only debate. I didn’t watch it, since I don’t live in Pennsylvania. But judging by my Twitter feed, …
economistwritingeveryday.com
Interest rates and housing prices are up sharply recently. But what is the historical trend? You might have missed it, but we just lived through a decade of very affordable housing* *offer not available in all jurisdictions
Mortgage Affordability Since 1971
Mortgage interest rates are climbing quickly, while housing prices are still mostly high. These factors combined means that it is much more expensive to buy a home than in the recent past. But how …
economistwritingeveryday.com
In some ways today, "the central values of civilization" are still in danger. But the world looks much better than in 1947 when the Mont Pelerin Society was founded based on that concern.
“The central values of civilization are in danger”
The Mont Pelerin Society was founded 75 years ago. The title of this post was the opening sentence of the Statement of Aims the new Society agreed upon. They had many concerns about what they consi…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How much does it cost to raise a child in the US? Recent headlines about it costing $300,000 are true enough, but that big number might make you feel nostalgic for the past. By most measures of income it's now cheaper to raise a child than at almost any point since 1960.
The Cost of Raising a Child
Raising kids is expensive. As an economist, we’re used to thinking about cost very broadly, including the opportunity cost of your time. Indeed, a post I wrote a few weeks ago focused on the …
economistwritingeveryday.com
Many Americans think we're already in a recession. What do they data show so far?
Are We in A Recession?
The truth is, we don’t know. But let’s be clear: whether we are or not doesn’t depend on the 2nd quarter GDP report. Though two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is often cite…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Which G7 countries performed the best during the pandemic? A case can be made for Canada, which had the 2nd best GDP performance (after the US), and the second lowest excess mortality (after Japan)
GDP Growth and Excess Mortality in the G7
Two weeks ago my post looked at GDP growth during the pandemic. But of course, economic growth isn’t the only important outcome to look at in the pandemic. Health outcomes are important too, …
economistwritingeveryday.com
How have OECD economies performed during the pandemic? I look at the data. The US looks pretty good, relatively speaking.
The Latest GDP Data: First Quarter 2022 in the OECD
Today two data releases for Gross Domestic Product were released. The first release was for the United States, giving us the third and “final” release for first quarter 2022 data. It wa…
economistwritingeveryday.com
The US has a lot of violence compared with peer countries, especially gun violence. But can public policy do anything to lower the level of violence? As a non-expert, I try to assess the evidence. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be many policies on the table that we haven't already put into place (such as gun restrictions for those convicted of domestic violence).
Violence, Guns, and Policy in the United States
The United States is a uniquely violent country among high-income democracies. And by the best available data on homicides, the US has always been more violent. Homicides are useful to look at beca…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Can Homer afford to send Bart to Springfield University? How are high school graduates doing in the US today? I explore these questions in my latest blog post.
Can Homer Simpson Afford to Send Bart to Springfield University?
In previous blog posts, I’ve used the Simpsons as an example of a typical family to use for historical comparisons. In a post on mortgage payments, I found that it’s slightly easier to …
economistwritingeveryday.com
The US had a lot of deaths in the past 2 years. While most of those are COVID-related, not all are Why are young people dying in large numbers? Do lockdowns explain drug ODs? Do vaccines explain heart disease deaths? I dig into the data in my latest blog post
COVID Deaths, Excess Deaths, and the Non-Elderly (Revisited)
While we know that COVID primarily affects the elderly, the mortality and other effects on the non-elderly aren’t trivial. I have explored this in several past posts, such as this November 20…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Wages are up since before the pandemic. But as we all know, so are prices. Which is rising faster? It depends on which measures of wages and prices you use, but for most reasonable measures, prices have outpaced wages since early 2020.
Inflation Has Wiped Out Average Wage Gains During the Pandemic (maybe)
The latest CPI inflation report didn’t have a huge surprise in the headline number, with 8.3% being very similar to last month. But with the two most recent months of data, we can now see som…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Vaccinations have very large external benefits. The social value of each additional COVID vaccine is, perhaps, around $20,000. But how do we convince people to get vaccinated? A new working paper used a randomized experiment to suggest that advertising (specifically, Donald Trump giving a pro-vaccine message) can increase vaccinations rates pretty cheaply. About $1 per additional vaccination. That's a great return on investment!
How to Get People Vaccinated for 93 Cents
We’ve talked a lot about vaccines on this blog, including both the benefits of vaccines and how to get people vaccinated. For example, last month I posted about Robert Barro’s estimate …
economistwritingeveryday.com
What do budget deficits look like in the new Biden budget proposal? They look big. And permanent. While we would expect Biden's budget to look very different from Trump, the deficits proposed are much larger than even Obama proposed, and are well above historical norms.
Deficits Are Here to Stay
Last week President Biden released his Fiscal Year 2023 budget proposal. The annual release of the budget proposal is always exciting for economists that study public finance. The president’s…
economistwritingeveryday.com
What did a "normal person" think about social issues 50 years ago compared with today? I use data from the General Social Survey to dig into this question. As you might guess some things have changed dramatically, such as views on same-sex sexual relations and marriage. But on some issues, the median American was already fairly progressive 50 years ago, such as approving of married women working and opposing laws against interracial marriage (even if they didn't approve of these marriages).
What Was a “Normal Person” 50 Years Ago?
If you spend much time on Twitter, you may have seen the following cartoon or something like it: The implication here is that many of the social beliefs we hold today are very different from what p…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Is it harder for a typical family with just one earner to afford a home today than in the 1990s? I use the fictional example of the Simpsons family to investigate this question. Turns out, it isn't much harder for the Simpsons to afford the median home today than in the 1990s, thanks to rising wages and low interest rates.
Home(r) Economics
Is it harder to buy a home today than in the past? Many seem to think so. Lately, some people have used the example of the fictional Simpsons family to make this claim. A recent Tweet with around 1…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Compared to 1981, there are about 1.7 billion more people in the world living above the $10/day poverty threshold. But, there are also about 1.3 billion more people living *below* that threshold. Is global capitalism to blame?
Is Global Capitalism Increasing Poverty?
A few days ago on Twitter, Nathan Robinson made the claim that global capitalism wasn’t reducing poverty. In fact, it appears that poverty, using the threshold of $10/day (rather than the usu…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Are Millennials poorer than earlier generations at the same age? A viral chart appears to show that (probably the chart you see in the preview here). I dig into the data and show why this chart is misleading -- and why Millennials will probably be much richer than Boomers when we have complete data
Who is the Wealthiest Generation?
Have you seen this chart? I have seen it many times. It comes from this Washington Post article, but it seems to go viral on Twitter about every 6 months or so. The implication of the chart seems t…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Many US states have provided incentives for people to get vaccinated. But when Ohio announced the first vaccine lottery, with 5 $1 million prizes, it took incentives to another level. Did it work? Was it cost effective? I summarize a new working paper in this blog post on these questions.
Vaccine Lotteries: They Work!
To try and encourage vaccination during the on-going COVID pandemic, there have been many public and private incentives offered. For example, free doughnuts. Or offering $200 to state employees in …
economistwritingeveryday.com