My latest post for Human Progress: how can the US escape the productivity slump?
How to Escape the Productivity Slump
humanprogress.org
@JeremyHorp
I'm an economist at the University of Central Arkansas
economistwritingeveryday.com/Focused reader — 1 sources in 90 days
Also a writer — 1 original piece this quarter
My latest post for Human Progress: how can the US escape the productivity slump?
How to Escape the Productivity Slump
humanprogress.org
What are the causes of the housing affordability crisis, and what can we do about it? I tackle these questions in my first post for Human Progress.
The End of the Housing Affordability Crisis
humanprogress.org
At the beginning of 2025, economists predicted 2.7% inflation, unemployment of 4.3%, and GDP growth of around 2% for the year. Not bad!
How Good Were 2025 Forecasts?
Last January I shared a roundup of forecasts for the year from markets and professional economists. Were they any good? Here was their prediction for the US economy: WSJ’s survey of economists reports that inflation expectations for 2025 were around 2% before the election, but are closer to 3% now. Their economists expect GDP growth slowing to…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Very good history of how our current zoning laws developed and where we might go from here towards a better system.
The Great Downzoning - Works in Progress Magazine
It was once legal to build almost anything, anywhere. Then, in the space of a few decades, nearly every city in the West banned densification.
worksinprogress.co
Your Fridge Is Bigger and Cheaper Today, Thanks to Global Trade and Innovation
cato.org
While the official poverty line for a family of four isn't perfect, it probably shouldn't be adjusted up to $140,000
The Poverty Line is Not $140,000
A recent essay by Michael W. Green makes a very bold claim that the poverty line should not be where it is currently set -- about $31,200 for a family of four -- but should be much higher. He suggests somewhere around $140,000. The essay was originally posted on his Substack, but has now gone…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Speaking of unlikely coalitions in Arkansas, here is a summary of one of my papers from a few years ago
University of Central Arkansas | UCA
Academic excellence, a vibrant campus, D1 athletics and an energetic college town, all help prepare our students for success here and everywhere else.
uca.edu
An interesting coalition has formed to oppose a new prison in Arkansas
The Prison Next Door
How Arkansas’ secretive plan for a new state lockup angered people in a deep red corner of rural America—and changed how some see incarceration.
boltsmag.org
Are tariffs really bringing in record revenue? Yes, but it's less than you would think from the headlines.
cato.org
Even MSAs that were heavily exposed to the "China Shock" have performed well economically since 2000
China Shocked? Hard Hit Metropolitan Statistical Areas Have Performed Well Economically Since 2000
Yet even these worst cases show that the US economy is more than able to adapt to employment changes brought on by international trade, even as we enjoy all of its other benefits.
cato.org
My latest blog post for Cato is co-authored with Phil Magness, and looks at Trump's latest tariff proposal. It's not good!
Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Reciprocal and Are a Massive Tax Increase on Americans
There isn’t any good economic theory to support Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan. The formula appears to be merely a justification to put tariffs on all countries, but higher ones on countries that we import a lot from.
cato.org
Why did egg prices increase so quickly, and why are they falling so quickly again (at least at the wholesale level for now)? I try to explain in my latest Cato post
Egg Prices Don’t Need to Be Investigated—It’s Just Supply and Demand
Egg prices have skyrocketed, but before jumping to conclusions about market manipulation, the reality is simple: It’s supply and demand, with avian flu decimating the egg-laying chicken population and inelastic consumer demand driving prices even higher.
cato.org
Why has almost all net job creation in the past 5 years gone to foreigners in the US? The simple answer: demographics. My lastest Cato blog post
Native-Born Americans Are Not Losing Jobs to Foreigners
Despite fears about foreign-born workers “taking” all net new jobs, the data show that native-born Americans aren’t being pushed out of the labor market—rather, demographic stagnation is the real challenge.
cato.org
My first blog post as an adjunct scholar at Cato
Not Everything You Dislike Is a "Negative Externality"
Not everything that annoys us or seems inefficient is a negative externality, yet policymakers often misuse this concept to justify costly and misguided interventions.
cato.org
Thanksgiving dinner today at the Plaza Hotel is more affordable today than in 1899, despite those appealing looking prices on the menu
Don’t Let Nominal Prices Fool You (Thanksgiving Edition)
When you see prices from the past, especially the distant past, your normal reaction is perhaps one of envy or nostalgia. Take for example the Thanksgiving menu from the Plaza Hotel in New York in 1899. As you browse the menu, note that the prices are in cents, not dollars. The most expensive items on…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Great essay that looks at whether the median voter was made worse off by inflation. He says yes. I think it is still uncertain (we don't have 2024 income data yet), but this is a very good, unique approach to the question.
Yes, inflation made the median voter poorer
I began writing this post the morning of Wednesday November 6th 2024 — the morning after the US election, where Donald Trump won a reasonably close yet nonetheless resounding victory over Kamala Harris.
jzmazlish.substack.com
Prediction markets called the election last night hours before other sources
Big Win for Prediction Markets
Last night was a big win for Trump, but it was also a big win for prediction markets. In January 2024, I suggested that one of the best ways to follow the election was by following prediction markets. That prediction turned out to be correct! Before any polls had closed, prediction markets had Trump with…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Who is the wealthiest generation? Millennials (I am quoted)
Wait, are millennials suddenly the wealthiest generation?
Soaring housing and stock prices make it look like younger Americans are finally getting ahead financially. But could it all be a mirage?
washingtonpost.com
It's true that about 7 million working-age men have dropped out of the labor force. But the reason isn't competition with immigrants for jobs. It's mostly illness and disability.
Where Are The 7 Million Missing Men?
You may have heard that there are roughly 7 million men of working age that are not currently in the labor force -- that is, not currently working or looking for work. The statistic has been produced in various ways using slightly different definitions by different researchers, but the most well-known is from Nicholas Eberstadt…
economistwritingeveryday.com
As an academic, I get emails about these kinds of conferences on pretty much a daily basis
What is it like to attend a predatory conference?
Nature sent a reporter to find out as part of an investigation into dud events. Nature sent a reporter to find out as part of an investigation into dud events.
nature.com
Get your good news!
Five things to be optimistic about in America today
Enough doom and gloom, let's allow ourselves a moment of happiness.
noahpinion.blog
What's going on with inflation at fast food restaurants? My latest for City Journal.
Inflation Hits the Drive-Through
Rising fast-food prices are eroding American household budgets.
city-journal.org
Young people today are doing a good job accumulating wealth.
Young People Have a Lot More Wealth Than We Thought
I've written numerous times about generational wealth on this blog. My biggest post was one comparing different generations using the Fed's Distributional Financial Accounts back in September 2021. I've posted several updates to that post as new the quarterly data was released, but this post contains a major update. I'll explain in great detail below…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Was 2023 the best year ever for the US labor market? Possibly!
2023: Great Labor Market, or Greatest Labor Market?
As 2023 winds to a close, you'll find lots of "year-end" lists. What would a year-end list for the US labor market look like? Last week I put together some data on the state of the US economy and compared it to 4 years ago. On many measures, sometimes to the first decimal place, the…
economistwritingeveryday.com
This Thanksgiving let's be thankful that, despite recent price increases, food today is much, much cheaper than in the past, and a much smaller share of a household's budget
Let’s Be Thankful for Food Abundance
Despite recent increases in prices of food, we should still all be very thankful this Thanksgiving for the abundance of affordable food available in the modern world. Looking back at my past few bl…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How wealthy are Americans? For both the median and average family, wealth in 2022 was higher than it had ever been (yes, it's adjusted for inflation)
The Average American Is a Millionaire
The Fed’s triennial survey shows that households are building wealth.
city-journal.org
Are Americans thriving today? I look at the latest data in this essay
Americans Are Still Thriving - Econlib
Improving standards of living are something that we have mostly taken for granted in modern America. In fact, failing to produce sufficient increases in national income is one of the surest ways for a President to lose reelection (even if they have little control over it in the short run). But how much are living […]
econlib.org
The Census Bureau released a ton of new data this week in their annual update on income, poverty, and health insurance. The headline number was bad: median income was down again. But there is some good news, especially for Black families.
Median Income Is Down Again. Are There Any Silver Linings in the Data?
This week the Census Bureau released their annual update on "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States." This release is always exciting for researchers, because it involves as massive release of data based on a fairly large (75,000 household) sample with detailed questions about income and related matters. For non-specialists, it also…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Why do liquor stores in Arkansas favor prohibition? And why do churches team up with liquor stores? Find out in this Reason podcast, starring.... me.
Why We Can't Have Nice Things: Bootleggers, Baptists, and Ballots
"You need an argument for why this is good for society. That's important, but you also need money."
reason.com
Building housing to fight inflation: what a concept!
First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing
The Minneapolis area has seen an increase in rental units, thanks to a regional effort that included new zoning rules.
bloomberg.com
$8,000 seized and she was never charged with a crime. Upside: she will get her day in court
Woman Who Had $8,000 Seized Through Asset Forfeiture Will Get Her Day in Court
Cristal Starling lost $8,000 after she missed one of several filing deadlines to contest the seizure of her money by police. A federal appeals court says she and others like her should be given more leeway.
reason.com
Zoning laws make the CNN homepage
Why it's so hard to build homes in your neighborhood
In the 1910s, US cities began enacting policies that would shape neighborhoods and, unintentionally, lay the roots for the severe housing shortage today: single-family zoning laws.
cnn.com
I make no claim of causation, but women's earnings have increased a lot since the introduction of Barbie in 1959
Barbie Dolls and Women’s Wages
I was reading "The Ultimate Guide to Barbie" the other day, and I noticed an interesting piece of data towards the end of the magazine: the original Barbie doll in 1959 retailed for $3. Today, according to the magazine, a Barbie costs around $14-19. And they further told us that adjusted for inflation, that $3…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How is the middle class faring in the US compared to a generation ago? In this podcast I discuss my work on this question (paper co-authored with Scott Winship)
How the Middle Class Is Faring: My Long
Does the typical American family today enjoy better living standards compared to 1985? We may have bigger TVs in our living rooms and smartphones in our pockets, but a recent report suggests the cost of a thriving, middle-class lifestyle has risen over the past generation. Jeremy Horpedahl argues a better methodology shows modest gains for the typical American family.
aei.org
Was the US in a recession in 2022? Probably not. GDP/GDI did decline in three of the four quarters, which is definitely a weak period for growth. But most other economic indicators were improving.
Answer: No, We Were Not in a Recession
About one year ago, I wrote a post with the title "Are We in A Recession?" At the time there was much talk, both in the popular media and among economists, about whether we were in a recession or not, and what "technically" counts as a recession. Now with hindsight, I think we can pretty…
economistwritingeveryday.com
We live in amazing times, but the best examples of abundance are not fancy new technologies. Rather, it is the humble grocery store.
Supermarkets Are Awesome.
A personal note from a most dishonest globe emoji neoliberal freak.
danieldrezner.substack.com
Dairy Queen is the king of ice cream shops in the US
axios.com
Arnold Kling reviews the book "Generations" which has lots of interesting data for consideration (including on generational wealth comparisons)
The Kids Are... Different
Along with the direct impacts of technology, individualism and a slower life trajectory are the key trends that define the generations of the 20th and 21st centuries. ——Jean M. Twenge, Generations,1 p. 8 Jean Twenge has assembled a wealth of information about how the attitudes, behaviors, health, and economic circumstances of Americans have changed over […]
econlib.org
Hello SeaBirders! My first post from the new Android app
Seabird
Seabird Reader is a new way of finding worthwhile writing and other media on the internet: A place for readers to discover, for curators to share, and for writers to feature their latest articles, essays, blog posts, books, and other work.
seabirdreader.com
Great essay by Bob Ewing on communicating with numbers
How to communicate numbers
“The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” ~ George Bernard Shaw NOTE: We use numbers all the time when we talk. But how often do other people remember them? Most public speakers don’t use numbers effectively. We encourage all our clients to follow a simple heuristic:
talkingbigideas.substack.com
Inflation adjusted wages are up in the past 12 months. Just barely. But finally.
Workers Finally Get a Real Annual Raise
Back in December I pointed out that, thanks to slowing inflation, real wages had been rising since June 2022 (using either the CPI or the PCEPI for inflation adjustments). With the latest monthly d…
economistwritingeveryday.com
There's a strong negative correlation between COVID vaccination rates and excess mortality in Europe
Excess Mortality and Vaccination Rates in Europe
Much ink has been spilled making cross-country comparisons since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have made a few of these, such as a comparison of GDP declines and COVID death rates among abo…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Denmark: a strong candidate for best performance during the pandemic
Economic Recovery from the Pandemic
How well have countries recovered from the declines in the pandemic? It’s actually a bit difficult to answer that question, because it depends on how you measure it. Even if we agree that GDP…
economistwritingeveryday.com
How many jobs did the US economy add in the 2nd quarter of last year? 1 million? 3 million? Or did it lose 287,000? All of these numbers could be correct.
Counting Jobs
Last week I wrote about the challenges of counting deaths. But surely in economics, we can count better, especially when it comes to something concrete like the number of people working. Right? May…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Have we been "overcounting" COVID deaths in the US? I dig into the data.
On Counting and Overcounting Deaths
How many people died in the US from heart diseases in 2019? The answer is harder than it might seem to pin down. Using a broad definition, such as “major cardiovascular diseases,” and i…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Covid death comparisons: out of 106 countries, "the 12 hardest hit were in Eastern Europe... the two most brutal pandemics in the world were in Serbia and Bulgaria, each with populations under seven million. The third-worst pandemic was in Russia"
9 Pandemic Narratives We’re Getting Wrong
We’re replacing pandemic narratives of enormous complexity with just-so stories.
nytimes.com
Wearing shoes inside the house is gross – and there’s science to back that up
Walking barefoot can boost your circulation, improve sleep quality and reduce inflammation, pain and tension, reflexologists say
theguardian.com
Have airfare prices "soared" since 1980? No. Compared to wages, they've been cut in half (though most of the decline happened by 2000)
Air Travel Prices Have Not “Soared” Since 1980 — They’ve Been Cut in Half
Winter holiday travel is notoriously frustrating. This year was especially bad if you were flying on Southwest. But that frustration about delayed and cancelled flights seems to have caused a big i…
economistwritingeveryday.com
2022 was a tough year for investors. Every broad class of investment was down when compared with inflation, some of them dramatically. But there was one investment that beat inflation slightly, with essentially zero risk: Series I Savings Bonds.
Tough Year for Investing (with one little-known, totally safe exception)
There’s still a few more days left in the year, but at this point it is safe to say, unfortunately, that it was a very bad year for investing. This Google chart shows most of the bad news. No…
economistwritingeveryday.com
Good news! Inflation-adjusted wages have been rising since June 2022.
Inflation-Adjusted Wages Have Been Rising Since June 2022
Back in May 2022, I wrote about the very bad picture for inflation-adjusted wages in the US. While they were still slightly above pre-pandemic levels, wages had been falling consistently since the …
economistwritingeveryday.com