Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem—Asterisk shared by Jacob Grier

@Jake · Feb 11, 2024

Jeremiah Johnson on why prediction markets for politics seem uniquely irrational.

Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem—Asterisk

Weeks after it was clear that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, you could still make pennies on the dollar betting Joe Biden would win. Why doesn’t smart money drive out dumb money in election markets?

asteriskmag.com

Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem—Asterisk - shared by Jacob Grier - Seabird