Retailers can track their shrinkage pretty accurately and I have enough insider knowledge to know that some stores (Nike @ MLK / Knott) really do close due to retail theft. So it must be up some. But the breathless news stories and closures always seemed wildly overstated, especially since lots (maybe even most?) of retail theft is internal. Store closures are often multi-causal and it was easier to make the narrative about theft than blame increased staffing costs and decreases in sales.
Retail Group Retracts Startling Claim About ‘Organized’ Shoplifting
The National Retail Federation had said that nearly half of the industry’s $94.5 billion in missing merchandise in 2021 was the result of organized theft. It was likely closer to 5 percent, experts say.
nytimes.com