A counterpoint to the argument that COVID is going to inevitably evolve to less virulence. The odds of another lethal variant arising from evolution in an immunocompromised individual or in an animal population that spills over again to humans seem worryingly high. This could be another lull between dangerous outbreaks; take care and enjoy it while it lasts!
The Epidemic of Covid Complacency
Isn’t it great? The pandemic is over. We don’t need masks. The virus is contained. Forget about vaccines since they don’t work. The vulnerable are protected. Future variants will be benign. The only problem is that none of this is true. Any proclamation that the pandemic is over ignores the potential recrudescence of a new variant with high transmission and immune escape. We will still benefit from using masks for many situations including protecting immunocompromised and vulnerable people, which also includes nearly 100 million Americans who haven’t been vaccinated, many without infection-acquired immunity. We are still averaging nearly 50,000 confirmed new cases a day, at a time when rapid tests are increasingly being used and not factored in. This is more than 3-fold the level of new cases, and 2-fold the number of Covid hospitalizations, than in June 2021. The metrics do not lend any support to the mission of...
erictopol.substack.com